Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - May 2024 Insights

This event launched the latest findings in our quarterly research series. Our regular survey with the Diffley Partnership helps us to understand and monitor changes in economic attitudes and public opinion over time.

Scott Edgar, Senior Research Manager at the Diffley Partnership, presented the latest findings. The recent data shows that healthcare and the cost of living are at the forefront of voters’ minds ahead of the General Election.

We were delighted to be joined by Sebastian Burnside, Chief Economist at NatWest Group and João Sousa, Deputy Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute who give their reflections and insights on the results.

The event was kindly hosted by the Royal Bank of Scotland.

Video credit: Allan Lloyds, Live to Air.

Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker - February 2024 Insights

Past event: 28th February 2024

This event launched the latest results from the Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker (USET) - a quarterly survey of over 2000 people in Scotland undertaken in partnership with the Diffley partnership.

Mark Diffley, Director of the Diffley Partnership presented the latest findings which track economic confidence and buying intentions over time, as well as helping us to understand and monitor economic attitudes and public opinion.

Mark was joined by Professor Mairi Spowage, Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute and Kevin Havelock, Regional Director Corporate, Commercial and Business Banking at Royal Bank of Scotland to reflect on the results which came a week ahead of the Spring Budget at Westminister.

The event was kindly hosted by the Royal Bank of Scotland.

Video credit: Allan Lloyd, Live to Air

About the speakers:

Mark Diffley, Director and Founder of the Diffley Partnership

Mark has spent 25 years delivering research, polling and insights for organisations in all sectors, including for governments, the third sector and companies across the business sector.

After working with a number of agencies in the research sector, Mark set up Diffley Partnership in 2017 and works with a brilliant team in Edinburgh to ensure that our research and insights are of the highest quality, enabling his clients to make important decisions with confidence.

Mairi Spowage, Professor of Practice and Director of the Fraser Allander Institute

Mairi’s areas of expertise include economic policy, economic statistics, national accounting, public sector finances, and economic and fiscal forecasting. Mairi leads on the Institute's work with various partners, including those in business, the public and third sector. 

Mairi is leading on various projects to improve economic measurement and the use of economic insights to improve policy decisions in Scotland and beyond. She also leads the programme to encourage graduates into careers in analysis through the Economic Futures programme. 

Mairi is on the Leadership team of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy and the Economics Statistics Centre of Excellence. Previously, Mairi was the Deputy Chief Executive of the Scottish Fiscal Commission and the Head of National Accounts at the Scottish Government, and has over 15 years of experience working in different areas of statistics and analysis, including transport, household surveys and performance measurement.

Kevin Havelock, Regional Director Corporate, Commercial and Business Banking at Royal Bank of Scotland

Kevin joined the Royal Bank of Scotland as a graduate trainee over 25 years ago, working in various teams before specialising in relationship management and moving into Corporate and Business Banking.  He has a degree in Politics from the University of Aberdeen and an MBA from Edinburgh Business School at Heriot Watt University.  Kevin is also currently a Governing Council Member of the Edinburgh Chamber of Commerce and previously served for six years as Treasurer of the charity, Families Outside.

Read more about the research.

Understanding Scotland economy tracker August 2023

This event launched the latest findings in our quarterly research series. Our regular survey with the Diffley Partnership helps us to understand and monitor changes in economic attitudes and public opinion over time.

The recent data have shown that skipping meals and cutting down on portion sizes have consistently been coping strategies for up to a quarter of Scottish households as the cost of living has risen.

In this session, Mark Diffley presented the latest tracker results and then we will reflect on the long term implications of the data by asking: is this household response to financial stress a long-term risk to public health and the economy?

To help us explore this question, Kate Elliot, from Rathbone Greenbank Investments, will join us. Her team led the creation of the Investor Coalition on Food Policy - a group of 23 investors representing over £6 trillion in assets under management. The work analyses the systemic risks and compelling business case for investors to include the negative impact of poor dietary health on the workforce and economic growth. 

Mark and Kate were joined by Pete Ritchie, Executive Director of Nourish Scotland. Pete will reflect on the new data from his perspective after many years experience of working to bring change towards a healthier, more sustainable food system.

In the light of recent reports that the average height of UK five year olds is slipping behind other European nations and established evidence that poor diets contribute to four out of the top five risk factors for early death, ill health and disability in Scotland we felt the time is right to ask what action business and policy-makers can take to help avert another growing crisis.

Watch the event recording

Read the research insights

Shattered Nation: how to save Britain from becoming a failed state

Past event: 23rd August 2023

What needs to be done to stop Britain becoming a failed state and is Scotland providing some answers?

Professor Danny Dorling, the Halford Mackinder Professor of Geography at University of Oxford joined us in Edinburgh to preview his new book “Shattered Nation: Inequality and the Geography of a Failing State".

This event explored how Britain lost its role as Europe’s leading economy, made itself one of the most unequal countries and whether policies such as the Scottish Child Payment, universal free school meals and the absence of university tuition fees in Scotland are preventing things getting worse.

In "Shattered Nation," Dorling discusses the need for progressive plans for change to help us tackle inequality, social and political polarisation as well as the economic challenges and repeated crises that have left so many struggling to afford decent housing and the basics of a good life.

The session was chaired by Assa Samaké-Roman, a journalist and newspaper columnist from France who lives in Edinburgh. Assa covers Scotland's politics, culture and society for the French-speaking media (Radio France Internationale, Radio-Télévision Suisse, Le Figaro, Politis). She is also the co-founder and editor of La Revue Écossaise, a new francophone magazine about Scotland's ideas, culture, history and politics.

This event was supported by News Direct.

Is Trust a Must?

Past Event: 25th June 2023

Hot on the heels of our new discussion paper “Is trust an undervalued ingredient for a thriving economy?”  on Thursday 25th June 2023, the David Hume Institute hosted an engaging webinar to explore the critical role of trust in our economy and society.

David Hume Institute Director, Susan Murray was joined in conversation from New York by Dr David M. Bersoff, from the Edelman Trust Institute.  David shared the global context on trust from the 2023 Annual Trust Barometer.  He explored questions such as, ‘What does the Barometer tell us about trust in the UK compared to the rest of the world?’, and ‘What do higher levels of trust mean for the economy and the labour market?’

Susan and David were also joined by Charlie Woods, the author of our recent DHI discussion paper, he reflected on the role of trust and the economy, and leading mediator John Sturrock, who works to build trust in negotiations. 

This thought-provoking discussion featured expert speakers and in-depth analysis. Trust is often overlooked as a key component of a thriving economy and society. Our speakers made a compelling case for its crucial role in a successful economy. 

This event was open to anyone interested in the future of our economy and society, from economists and policymakers to business leaders and students. Throughout the webinar attendees had the opportunity to ask questions and engage in lively debate with others who are interested about the role of trust in economic success.

Scotland's land information system: what is it and why it matters

Past event: 8th March 2023

Scotland’s land information system: what is it and why it matters

On Wednesday 8th March 2023 the David Hume Institute and Built Environment Forum Scotland hosted a webinar to discuss a new report about Scotland’s land information system, written by land reform expert Andy Wightman.

Andy Wightman, writer, researcher and former member of the Scottish Parliament was joined by Professor Stewart Brymer, solicitor and Honorary Professor in law at the University of Dundee to discuss why the lack of a fully functioning land and building information system is holding Scotland back. The event was chaired by Ailsa Macfarlane, Director of the Built Environment Forum Scotland.

Information about land is used everyday by businesses, policy-makers, academics and ordinary citizens. This information ranges from land ownership to valuation, from energy efficiency ratings to building types and from vegetation cover to flood risks.

All of this information exists in some form, however much of it is not easily available and virtually none of it is made available in an integrated form. As the impacts of climate change intensify, there is even greater need for more timely, more comprehensive and more accessible information about land and buildings in Scotland.

Understanding Scotland: public perceptions of the economy

Past event: 1st March 2023

On Wednesday 1st March 2023 we discussed the latest insights from our most recent Understanding Scotland quarterly survey of economic attitudes and expectations. Our regular survey tracks economic confidence and buying intentions over time, as well as helping us to understand and monitor public opinion.

For this event we were joined by Mark Diffley, Shona McCarthy and David Eiser. The conversation brought to life what is valuable data and essential information for decision makers in all sectors.

Mark Diffley is a researcher and political pollster with over 20 years’ experience.

Shona McCarthy joined the Edinburgh Festival Fringe Society as Chief Executive 7 years ago. Shona has championed the Edinburgh Fringe as the world’s leading performing arts festival and expo, founded on the principles of open access and freedom of expression.

David Eiser, is Director of Research, Analysis and Investigations at Consumer Scotland, the recently established statutory organisation for consumers in Scotland.

View Mark’s slide presentation

Talking Tax with Dr Arun Advani, Dr Andrew Summers and Charlotte Barbour

The authors of recently published research discussed their findings with Charlotte Barbour, Director of Tax for ICAS and Susan Murray, Director of the David Hume Institute to reflect on the implications for Scotland.

The researchers from LSE and Warwick presented new findings from analysing anonymised HMRC data of the taxes paid by the UK's top 1% and explored the relationship of headline tax rates with capital gains, total income and tax reliefs. They suggested putting a floor on the lowest tax rates with an Alternative Minimum Tax.

ICAS has called for more "honest public debate about who should pay tax and how much they should pay". Often in Scotland discussion on tax focuses only on the powers at Holyrood. However this research shows when considering total income, there is a complex relationship of different tax rates for people that are able to restructure their earnings.

As the post Corona virus economy emerges, focus will undoubtedly turn to tax and paying for public services. This session was an honest conversation to think about the complex interplay of rates and reliefs. Should a post-pandemic UK consider an alternative minimum tax threshold?

Click here to download the presentation slides.

Michael Anderson and Graeme Roy on Scotland's Populations

Professors Michael Anderson and Graeme Roy spoke at the David Hume Institute on “Scotland’s Populations”. They discussed how our demographics have shaped our country, and the challenges they present in the future. 

Professor Michael Anderson is Emeritus Professor of Economic History, University of Edinburgh, and an expert on Scottish demography. Last year, Oxford University Press published ‘Scotland's Populations: from the 1850s to Today’, which explores population growth and decline, rural settlement and depopulation, and migration and emigration.  

Professor Graeme Roy is Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute and Head of Economics at the University of Strathclyde. Prior to joining Strathclyde University he was head of the First Minister’s Policy Unit. 

A copy of the slides from each presentation is available for download here:

Please see below for the audio recording of this event.

Jonathan Portes on Immigration policy: challenges for the UK and Scotland

Professor Jonathan Portes spoke at the David Hume Institute on “Immigration policy: challenges for the UK and Scotland”.

Professor Jonathan Portes is a Senior Fellow of the Economic and Social Research Council's "UK in a Changing Europe" initiative, based at King’s College London, which promotes high quality research into the complex and changing relationship between the UK and the European Union. His current research concentrates on issues related to immigration and labour mobility, both within the European Union and outside; and the economic implications of Brexit. Jonathan's latest book is called 'What Do we Know and What Should We Do About Immigration?'.

He has spent most of his career working as a civil servant, serving as Chief Economist at the Department for Work and Pensions from 2002 to 2008 and Chief Economist at the Cabinet Office from 2008 to 2011. He led the Cabinet Office’s economic analysis and economic policy work during the financial crisis and on the G20 London Summit in April 2009. From 2011 to 2015, he was Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

A copy of the slides from Jonathan’s presentation is available for download here: